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Ten Percent Solar by 2025 Our new report shows how we can effect a massive shift toward clean, green, renewable solar energy »

Utility Solar Assessment (USA) Study
summary (page 2)

Equally important, we project that solar PV will reach cost parity with conventional retail electricity pricing, on a straight kWh rate basis, throughout much of the U.S. by around 2015.

We project that the cost for crystalline silicon PV systems will drop from an average of $7 peak watt (19-32 cents kWh) today to approximately $3.00 (8-14 cents kWh) a decade from now. Thin-film PV systems and low-price, bulk-purchased crystalline PV systems are projected to drop from around $5.50 per peak watt today (15-25 cents kWh) to $3.00 peak watt in 2015 (8-14 cents kWh) and less than $1.50 peak watt (4-7 cents kWh) in 2025. In our utility-scale concentrating solar power (CSP) calculations we show an average price of $3.50 per watt (around 18 cents per kWh) in 2007 declining to around $1 peak watt (approximately 5 cents per kWh) in 2025.

Recent industry developments, particularly large-scale solar deployment plans announced by major utilities, support the price projections outlined in this report. As utilities and others scale up their solar efforts, they are reaching economies of scale unlike anything we’ve seen in the past. Southern California Edison’s recently announced 250 MW rooftop installation program is the perfect case in point. SCE could reach the $3.50 peak watt installed price as early as 2010. This supports the case that such price points are achievable and that some players may even get there sooner. 

It is also possible that one or more disruptive players could enter the market at a scale and price points as early as 2010 that could achieve solar cost parity even sooner. While this report doesn’t specifically map this more accelerated scenario, utilities and policy makers should keep a watch out for even more favorable solar cost comparisons than discussed by this report. 

In short, whether the market follows the highly probable trajectory mapped in this report, or a disruptive player forces an even better scenario, solar cost parity is within the planning horizon of most every utility in the U.S.

Based on projected trends in declining costs of solar and increasing retail electricity rates, the following tables show how solar PV – beginning to reach cost competitiveness in just a few U.S. regional markets today -- will be cheaper than standard grid power in most U.S. markets by 2025.

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